[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2529 (N10,L=344) rotated around the western limb but was responsible for multiple B-class flares throughout the reporting period. New Region 2533 (S02E62, Hsx/alpha) has not produced significant flare activity and remained a simple, unipolar sunspot. The only remaining numbered sunspot, Region 2532 (N06E07, Bxo/beta), underwent consolidation in its trailer and was also absent of any significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one through three (21-23 Apr).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at near background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (21-22 Apr). Day three (23 Apr) should see a drop to normal levels due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Wind speed was steady for most of the reporting period near 350 km/s before increasing late to approximately 430 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 6 and 10 nT while the Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain at nominal levels, under a background solar wind regime, for days one and two (21-22 Apr). Day three (23 Apr) should see an enhanced solar wind environment due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet under background solar wind conditions on days one and two (21-22 Apr). Day three (23 Apr) is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated period of active conditions likely (below G1-Minor) due to the anticipated arrival of a recurrent coronal hole feature.

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