[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. No flare activity was observed during the period. Region 2532 (N06W06, Axx/alpha) was in decay while Region 2533 (S02E49, Hsx/alpha) was stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one through three (22-24 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (22 Apr). Days two and three (23-24 Apr) should see a drop to normal levels due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels through the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 373 km/s to 497 km/s. Total field ranged from 2-9 nT while the Bz component was variable between +8 nT and -5 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind conditions are expected to remain near nominal levels, under a background solar wind regime, for day one (22 Apr). Day two (23 Apr) should see an enhanced solar wind environment due to the anticipated arrival of a positive polarity CH HSS. Coronal hole influence should persist on day three (24 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through the rest of the UTC day on day one (22 Apr) and through early on day two (23 Apr). By early to midday on day two, a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing unsettled to G1-Minor storm levels. Quiet to active conditions are expected to persist into day three (24 Apr).

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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