[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 24 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 24 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels through the period. A few low level B-class flares were observed from an unnumbered region rotating around the eastern limb. The largest was a B1 flare at 24/0224 UTC. Region 2533 (S02E22, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet while Region 2532 (N05W34, Cao/beta) had spot reemergence. Other activity included a CME observed off the NNW limb in coronagraph imagery beginning at 24/0424 UTC. This event was correlated with a backsided filament eruption observed in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery at 24/0335 UTC. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares on days one through three (24-26 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (24-26 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, suggested enhancement from the CH HSS. Total field increased from 4 nT to a maximum of 11 nT at 23/1833 UTC and slowly decreased to near 6 nT by the end of the period. The Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -9 nT at 23/2016 UTC. Solar wind speed increased from approximately 410 km/s to near 550 km/s. Phi angle was predominantly in a positive (away) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to exhibit minor enhancements from the CH HSS on day one (24 Apr). A return to near-background conditions is anticipated for days two and three (25-26 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated G1-minor storm level observed during the 23/2100-2400 UTC period due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with isolated active periods possible for the rest of the UTC day on day one (24 Apr) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (25-26 Apr) as CH HSS effects subside.

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