[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Apr 25 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Apr 25 0446 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 18 - 24 April 2016

Solar activity was high on 18 Apr due to an M6/1f flare observed at 18/0029 UTC from old Region 2529 (N09, L=342, class/area Eki/850 on 11 Apr). Type II (1869 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps were observed in conjunction with this event, as well as a 120 sfu Tenflare. Activity dropped to low levels on 19 Apr with a C1/Sf observed at 19/2302 UTC. Very low levels were observed for the remainder of the period after the region departed the disk.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was mostly quiet on 18-21 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions were observed on 22-24 Apr. Isolated active periods were observed on 22 and 24 Apr along with an isolated minor storm period on 23 Apr due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 25 April - 21 May 2016

Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the majority of the period with a chance for M-class flares from 03-16 May due to the return of old Region 2529.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with the exception of 01-03 May and 10-13 May following recurrent CH HSS events.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 25-26 Apr as CH HSS effects subside followed by quiet conditions on 27-28 Apr. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 29 Apr to 01 May with active periods likely due to effects from a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. An isolated minor storm period is possible on 30 Apr. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 02-08 May with unsettled to active periods possible on 04 May due to a SSBC. Quiet to active levels are expected on 09-11 May with minor storm periods likely due to negative polarity CH HSS effects. Mostly quiet conditions are expected from 12-18 May. Isolated unsettled to active periods are possible on 14 May due to another SSBC. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected from 19-21 May with isolated active periods possible due to effects from a recurrent, positive polarity CH HSS.

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