[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest flare of the period was a B5 at 24/1603 UTC from Region 2532 (N05W49, Cao/beta). Slight decay was observed in Regions 2532 and 2534 (N06E40, Axx/alpha) while Regions 2533 (S02E07, Hsx/alpha) and 2535 (N05E62, Hax/alpha) were stable. Two faint backsided full-halo CMEs were observed in coronagraph imagery during the period. The first was at 25/0000 UTC and the second was at 25/0512 UTC. The CMEs were associated with several flares that occurred from old Region 2529 (N09, L=342) first observed in STEREO A EUV 195 imagery at 24/2235 UTC and 25/0445 UTC, respectively. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares on days one through three (25-27 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the forecast period (25-27 Apr). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed was between 450 km/s and 600 km/s. Total field ranged from 3-7 nT while the Bz component was between +7 nT and -6 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a predominantly positive (away) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to exhibit enhancement from the CH HSS on day one (25 Apr). A return to a near-background solar wind environment is anticipated for days two and three (26-27 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions at 24/1500-1800 UTC due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on days one and two (25-26 Apr) under the influence of the subsiding CH HSS. Day three is (27 Apr) is expected to return to quiet conditions under an ambient solar wind environment.

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