[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Apr 26 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Apr 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and only background flare activity was observed this period. New Region 2536 (N13E61, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period but despite producing numerous mid-level B-class flare activity, the region was stable along with the remaining three active regions on the disk. A new, emerging area of spots near S08W29 appeared late in the period but remained unnumbered at the time of this writing.

An episode of coronal dimming near S32W04 was observed in SDO 193 imagery beginning at 26/0400 UTC but did not appear to have an associated coronal mass ejection (CME). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (26-28 Apr).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three days (26-28 Apr) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were at background levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial value near 515 km/s to around 440 km/s after 25/2000 UTC, Bt values were steady at around 5 nT, and Bz was mostly northward throughout the period. The phi angle was stable in a positive (away) solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (26-28 Apr).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet over the next three days (26-28 Apr) due to a background solar wind environment.

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