[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2540 (N21E31, Hrx/alpha) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C3 flare at 02/0842 UTC. Accompanying the flare was a Type II radio sweep (est. shock velocity of 1,800 km/s). A CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 02/0912 UTC that appears to be associated with the event. Additional analysis is being conducted to determine if an Earth-directed component is present. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Sunspots on the disk were either stable or in decay. Region 2540 decreased in area and was nearly plage by the end of the period. Region 2539 (N16E15, Eai/beta) exhibited dissipation of umbral area in its intermediate spot. Region 2536 (N16W18, Dai/beta) displayed minor decay in its leader spot.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days of the forecast period (02-04 May). Old active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) is due to return on 03 May. On its previous transit across the disk, the region produced numerous C-class activity and was an M-class producer.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (02-03 May) with high levels likely on day three (04 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels three days of the forecast period (02-04 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected enhanced conditions. Wind speeds and a negative phi angle suggested influence from a negative polarity CH HSS, though the higher density observed were atypical for a HSS regime. The total magnetic field strength was between 7-11 nT at the start of the period and slowly decreased to around 5-7 nT by the periods end. The Bz component was predominantly southward with brief northward fluctuations throughout the day. Density averaged roughly 6-7 p/cc. Solar wind speeds increased gradually from around 370 km/s at 01/1200 UTC to between 450-500 km/s after 01/2130 UTC. Phi angle was in the negative (towards) sector for the majority of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are expected to persist through day one (02 May) and into day two (03 May). A trend towards background conditions is expected by day three (04 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels (G1-Minor) during the 02/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period and major storm levels (G2-Moderate) during the 02/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period in response to prolonged periods of southward Bz early on 02 May. The remaining periods were between unsettled to active conditions.

Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to observe unsettled to active conditions late on day one (02 May) as enhancements in the solar wind continue to influence Earths magnetic field. Quiet to unsettled conditions are likely on day two (03 May) as enhancements in the solar wind wane. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for day three (04 May) as the solar wind trends to near-background levels.

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