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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 03 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels with only B-class flares observed during the period. New Region 2541 (N05E58, Bxo/beta) exhibited slight growth and was responsible for a B6 flare at 03/0817 UTC. Region 2539 (N16E01, Eai/beta) remained mostly unchanged, as did Region 2536 (N16W32, Dao/beta). The remainder of the disk and limb was quiet and stable.
Analysis of the 02/0912 UTC CME reflected a near miss to Earth during a time just outside of this forecast period. No impacts are expected from this CME. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class flares likely on all three days (03-05 May) of the forecast period, due to the return of old active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) on 03 May.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels at 03/1040 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (03-05 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, continued to reflect an enhanced solar wind environment, likely in response to a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind began the period near 450 km/s, persisted near this speed through 02/1600 UTC, and gradually increasing to speeds near 580 km/s by 02/2140 UTC. Speeds remained at about 550 km/s through periods end.
Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1 to 9 nT, leveling off near the end of the period to average near 5 nT. The Bz component was predominantly southward through the period, with a maximum southward deflection of -8 nT, observed at about 02/0100 UTC. Some brief northward fluctuations to +3 nT were observed, mainly near the end of the period. Phi angle continued in a predominately negative orientation.
Forecast: Solar wind enhancements are expected to decrease on day one (03 May) with a trend towards background conditions expected for days two and three (04-05 May).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels, with an isolated period of minor storming (G1-Minor) during the 02/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period, likely in response to the continued high speed solar winds and prolonged southward IMF orientation.
Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to begin trending towards less enhanced conditions, with quiet to unsettled levels for the remainder of day one (03 May). Mostly quiet conditions are expected for days two and three (04-05 May) as the solar wind environment decreases to near-background levels.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 May 03 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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