[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 04 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 04 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2541 (N04E46, Cro/beta) produced a B6/Sf flare at 04/0122 UTC, despite undergoing overall penumbral decay. Region 2535 (N07W61, Hax/alpha), Region 2536 (N15W44, Dao/beta), and Region 2539 (N16W12, Cao/beta) all exhibited slight decay and were quiet throughout the period. An area of enhanced plage was observed rotating around the east limb near N10, likely old active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) returning to the visible disk. This area was responsible for several low-level B-class flares during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares on day one (04 May) increasing to likely on days two and three (05-06 May) due to the return of old active Region 2529 (N10, L=344) on 04 May.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, reaching a maximum flux reading of 4,006 pfu at 03/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a slightly enhanced solar wind environment through the first half of the period. Solar wind began the period near 540 km/s, total field averaged near 5 nT, Bz varied between +/- 4 nT, and phi angle remained in a slightly positive orientation. Around 03/2100 UTC, winds decreased to average near 450 km/s, total field decreased to average near 4 nT, Bz remained variable with a trend towards a more positive orientation, and the phi angle rotated into a negative orientation, all indicating a likely return to background conditions.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain near background conditions all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the summary period.

Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet conditions all three days of the forecast period (04-06 May).

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