[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2541 (N04E08, Bxo/beta) produced a B5/Sf flare at 07/0640 UTC, the strongest of the period. Slight growth was noted around the leader spot over the past 24 hours. All other regions were stable or in gradual decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (07-09 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels, with a maximum flux of 4,010 pfu at 06/1405 UTC. The 2 MeV Flux decreased to normal background levels as the CIR/CH HSS continued to interact with Earths magnetosphere. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on day one through three (07-09 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated a transitions from the CIR into a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was between 8-12 nT until after 06/2215 UTC, when the field dropped to between 3-7 nT through the remainder of the period. A prolonged period of southward Bz was observed from around 06/1530-1805 UTC, outside of which the Bz component was predominantly northward. Solar wind speeds were steady around 400 km/s and increased to around 460 km/s at 06/2030 UTC before a further increase to 525 km/s around 06/2220 UTC. Phi angle was negative (towards) until a rotating into the positive (away) sector was observed after 06/1800 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced under the influence of the positive polarity CH HSS on day one (07 May). A further enhancement is anticipated late on day two (08 May) as a negative polarity CH HSS begins to become geoeffective. The negative polarity CH HSS effects are expected to persist through day three (09 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached minor storm levels (G1 - Minor) during the 06/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period due to a prolonged period of southward Bz.

Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to active levels on day one (07 May) as the positive polarity CH HSS persists. Day two (08 May) is likely to observed active conditions late in the day as a negative polarity CH HSS begins to influence Earths magnetosphere. Minor storm levels (G1 - Minor) are likely on day three (09 May) as the negative polarity CH HSS continues.

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