[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 08 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2541 (N04W07, Axx/alpha) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1/1f observed at 07/1713 UTC. The region entered a decaying trend after the flare, almost reaching plage by the end of the period. Region 2542 (N11E22, Cao/beta) was the largest region on the solar disk, developing a few more simple spots over the past 24 hours. Newly emerged Region 2543 (S06E11, Cro/beta) stayed relatively simple with only rudimentary penumbra observed around its trailer spot.

A pair of filament eruptions in the NE quadrant were observed in GONG imagery, both beginning at about 07/1515 UTC. The first filament was about 14 degrees long and centered near N22E39 while the second was about 9 degrees long and centered near N31E42. SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery observed material movement across the face of the disk, generally in a northward direction. Associated CME signatures were observed in coronagraph imagery off the N limb, first visible in LASCO C2 imagery at 07/1648 UTC. Further analysis and modeling of the signatures suggested no anticipated impacts as the ejecta traversed north of the Earth-Sun line. No other CMEs observed were determined to have Earth-directed components.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for the next three days (08-10 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels on day one (08 May) and increasing to moderate to high levels on days two and three (09-10 May) due to an enhanced solar wind environment associated with a negative polarity CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE satellite, indicated an enhanced environment. A solar sector boundary crossing was observed after 08/0000 UTC, with a possible contribution of a transient embedded in the CIR, ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength began the period around 5-7 nT until after 07/2230 UTC, when a gradual increase to a peak of 18 nT was observed at 08/1024 UTC. The Bz component of the IMF was oriented predominantly southward after 07/2350 UTC, with a maximum deflection of -12.7 nT at 08/0128 UTC. A slow rotation towards a more northward orientation was observed beginning around 08/0610 UTC. Densities were roughly between 2-8 p/cc until after after 07/2230 UTC, when an increase to between 10-20 p/cc was observed. Solar wind speeds increased from around 400-450 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 650 km/s by the periods end. Phi was in the positive (away) sector until a rotation into the negative (towards) was observed around 08/0100 UTC.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced on day one (08 May) as the enhanced solar wind environment transitions into the influence of an equatorial, negative polarity CH HSS. Elevated wind speeds are expected to persist through days two and three (09-10 May) as CH HSS effects continue.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels until a stronger IMF, with a prolonged southward orientated Bz component and elevated solar wind speed, was observed around 08/0000 UTC. This resulted in a geomagnetic disturbance reaching G2 (Moderate) storm levels observed during the 08/0000-0300 UTC and 08/0600-0900 UTC synoptic periods and G3 (Strong) storm levels during the 08/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast.. The geomagnetic field is expected to continue to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on day one (08 May). G1 (Minor) storm levels are likely to continue through days two and three (08-09 May) as additional disturbances to the geomagnetic field are anticipated from continued negative polarity CH HSS effects.

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