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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 12 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2542 (N10W29, Dai/beta-gamma) exhibited growth in its northern trailer spots and added a few more spots to its southern extent. It maintained its east-west inversion line, yet only produced a B8/Sf at 11/1422 UTC. Region 2543 (S05W33, Dai/beta) showed continued separation between its trailer and leader spots, with both areas displaying consolidation around each respective main spot, but remained in a simple bipolar configuration. It too, was inactive during the period. Decay persisted in Region 2544 (N20E27, Cso/beta) as it lost most of its penumbra in the southern portion, remaining inactive as well. Region 2545 (S21W15, Dao/beta) exhibited growth in both the intermediate and trailer spot areas. Despite the overall growth and increased magnetic complexity, it too remained inactive during the period.
The eruptive prominence on the NW limb (N38W90), observed in SDO/AIA and GONG/H-alpha imagery between 11/1000-1300 UTC, had an associated CME first seen at 11/1136 UTC in LASCO-C2 imagery. However, after analysis of coronagraph imagery, it appeared most of the ejecta was off the Sun-Earth line and did not have an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (12-14 May), primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 2542, 2543, and 2545.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 48,559 pfu at 11/1745 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high to very high levels the next three days (12-14 May) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment continued to reflect waning negative polarity CH HSS effects. Solar wind speed began the period near 500 km/s before steadily decreasing to average around 400 km/s by the end. Total field strength ranged primarily from 2 to 4 nT, while the Bz component maintained a weak, mostly southward orientation. The phi angle remained in a primarily negative sector.
Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue decreasing to near-background levels on day one (12 May), and is expected to remain at background levels through days two and three (13-14 May).
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.
Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is expected to be primarily quiet all three days (12-14 May) as the CH HSS effects taper off on day one and the solar wind environment returns to ambient background levels.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 May 12 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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