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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 13 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels. Region 2542 (N09W42, Dac/beta) exhibited growth in its intermediate spots with consolidation evident in its southern spots. This region was responsible for a B4 flare at 12/1610 UTC, but was otherwise inactive. Region 2543 (S05W47, Dso/beta) underwent overall decay, losing many of its leader and intermediate spots, and was inactive. Region 2544 (N21E18, Dso/beta) was the only region to exhibit growth, redeveloping a few intermediate and trailer spots during the period. It was responsible for a B5 flare at 12/1223 UTC. Region 2545 (S21W28, Dao/beta) began to decay, losing most of its intermediate spots, and showing consolidation in its leader and trailer spots.
An approximately 7 degree long filament, centered near N10W50, was observed in SDO/AIA 304 imagery lifting off the disk between 12/1843-2015 UTC. Analysis of SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery indicated the trajectory was well west of the Sun-Earth line and deemed to not have an Earth-directed component. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.
Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares all three days (13-15 May), primarily due to the higher flare probability of Region 2542.
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels through the period, with a maximum flux of 42,356 pfu at 12/1700 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at primarily high levels on day one (13 May) and moderate to high levels on days two and three (14-15 May) due to continued electron redistribution. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values.
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of waning negative polarity CH HSS effects and a return to a more ambient background environment. Solar wind speed decreased fairly steadily from around 400 km/s at the beginning of the period to near 360 km/s by the end. Total field strength held steady near 5-6 nT, while the Bz component remained consistently between -2 nT and -5 nT. The phi angle continued in a negative sector.
Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain near ambient background conditions for days one and two (13-14 May). Recurrence suggests a solar sector boundary change (SSBC) is likely on day three (15 May) with the approaching CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled period during the 13/0300-0600 UTC synoptic period, likely as a result of prolonged southward Bz.
Forecast: Quiet conditions are expected to continue on days one and two (13-14 May). Quiet to unsettled conditions, with a chance for isolated active periods, are expected on day three (15 May) with the arrival of an anticipated SSBC and incoming CIR.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 May 13 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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