[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels. Region 2543 (S05W61, Cao/beta) produced a C7 flare at 14/1134 UTC and a C2/Sf flare at 14/0931 UTC which were the largest events of the period. Minor growth was observed in Region 2544 (N21E04, Dso/beta) and new Region 2546 (S07E78, Hsx/alpha) was numbered this period but the remaining three regions were in decay.

A CME off the west limb associated with a filament eruption (centered near N12W65) that began around 13/1200 UTC was analyzed and determined to not be Earth-directed. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flare activity over the next three days (14-16 May).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak value of 17,300 pfu observed at 13/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on days one and two (14-15 May) and decrease to normal levels on day three (16 May) in response to elevated geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a near-background solar wind environment. Solar wind speed slowly decreased from around 360 km/s to 330 km/s early in the period but then increased to around 375 km/s late in the period. Total field strength (Bt) values increased to around 9 nT late in the period and Bz reached a maximum southward component of -6 nT. The phi angle remained mostly steady in a negative (toward) solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at near-background levels on days one and two (14-15 May). A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) is expected on day two, transitioning from a negative sector to a positive sector. By mid-to-late on day three (16 May), a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to become geoeffective causing an enhancement in solar wind parameters. Total field enhancements near 15 nT followed by an increase in solar wind speeds to around 575 km/s is expected based on STEREO A MAG and PLASTIC data.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels this period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on days one and two (14-15 May). By mid-to-late on day three (16 May), a CIR preceding a positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective causing active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels through the second half of the UTC day.

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