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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 16 1230 UTC.
Solar Activity
24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels as multiple C-class flares were observed early in the period. A long-duration C3/Sf flare associated with a filament eruption centered near N10W62 was the largest flare this period but the associated coronal mass ejection, first observed in coronagraph imagery at 15/1536 UTC, is not expected to be Earth-directed.
Region 2544 (N20W20, Dai/beta-gamma) began to show signs of decay and consolidation this period, especially is its trailer spot area, but maintained a weak beta-gamma magnetic signature. Regions 2545 (S20W72, Cao/beta) and 2546 (S07E50, Hhx/alpha) were stable throughout the period and Regions 2542 (N11W84, Bxo/beta) and 2543 (S05W84, Hsx/alpha) have rotated out of view.
Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be low with a slight chance for isolated M-class flares (R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts) over the next three days (16-18 May).
Energetic Particle
24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux decreased to normal to moderate levels due to redistribution associated with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) and coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS).
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux became slightly enhanced after 15/1805 UTC, following the aforementioned filament eruption, and reached a peak value of 2 pfu at 15/2355 UTC before slowly returning to near-background levels by the end of the period.
Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to return to moderate to high levels over the next three days (16-18 May) in response to an enhanced solar wind environment.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to be at near-background levels on day one (16 May) and background levels on days two and three (17-18 May).
Solar Wind
24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters indicated the onset of a CIR early in the period followed by a transition into a positive polarity CH HSS. Total IMF field strength values (Bt) slowly decreased from 10 nT to 7 nT throughout the period and Bz briefly reached a maximum southward component of -9 nT early in the period and was highly variable. The phi angle was generally steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period with brief variability observed between 15/2315-16/0100 UTC.
Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on day one (16 May) under continued CH HSS influence and solar wind speeds exceeding 500 km/s are likely. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to near-background levels on days two and three (17-18 May) as CH HSS effects diminish.
Geospace
24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels this period due to the effects of a positive polarity CH HSS.
Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (16 May) due to continued CH HSS influence. Generally quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (17-18 May) with isolated active periods possible on day two as CH HSS effects slowly subside.
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![Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion - 2016 May 16 20:07 UTC]()
Live data: SunSpotWatch.com
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