[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 17 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2544 (N22W34, Cai/beta-gamma) produced a C1/Sf flare at 16/1525 UTC, but continued to display decay in its trailer spots and was relatively quiet the rest of the period. Region 2546 (S07E38, Hhx/alpha) exhibited little change and was stable. Region 2542 (N09, L=356) produced a C1 and a B7 flare as it rotated further around the west limb. Despite a few CMEs visible in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery, none were deemed to be Earth-directed.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels all three days (17-19 May), with Region 2544 being the most likely contributor.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 1,269 pfu at 16/1705 UTC. The 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels the next two days (17-18 May), with normal to high levels on day three (19 May) due to effects from an expected CIR ahead of another CH HSS.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the continued influences of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period averaging near 470 km/s, increased to range between 450-550 km/s near the middle of the period, before gradually increasing to range between 470-580 km/s by the end. Total field strength (Bt) ranged mainly between 2 to 8 nT, averaging near 6 nT for most of the period, while the Bz component was variable between +/- 7 nT. The phi angle was primarily in a positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated for the remainder of day one (17 May). Speeds are expected to slowly decrease by day two (18 May) as the CH HSS rotates out of a geoeffective position. Day three (19 May) is expected to see a disturbed and enhanced IMF followed by an increase in solar wind speed due to the expected arrival of a CIR followed by another positive polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period from 17/0600-0900 UTC, due to persistent CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to see quiet to unsettled levels, with a chance for an isolated active period, on day one (17 May) due to continued CH HSS effects. By day two (18 May), predominantly quiet conditions are expected, with isolated periods of unsettled levels due to continuing, but decreasing CH HSS effects. Day three (19 May) is likely to see quiet to active levels due to expected influence of an anticipated CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

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