[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 24 1245 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 24 1245 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf at 24/1020 UTC from Region 2546 (S07W56, Hhx/alpha). Region 2546 maintained its unipolar classification and was the lone numbered sunspot on the visible disk. An eruptive prominence was observed lifting off of the western limb at approximately 24/0700 UTC but is not expected to contain a geoeffective component. No additional CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels with a chance for C-class flares for all three days (24-26 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels, over the next three days (24-26 May). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near background conditions. Solar wind speed began the period at approximately 500 km/s and ended the period near 400 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 2 and 7 nT while the Bz component was predominately northward with a short deviation that saw a maximum southern extent of -5 nT late in the period. The phi angle was in a positive (away from the Sun) sector.

Forecast: Solar wind speed is expected to continue at near ambient levels for the remainder of day one (24 May). A solar sector boundary change (SSBC) into a negative (towards the Sun) sector is expected late on day two (25 May), with the arrival of a weak CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS late on day three (26 May).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet most of the period, with an unsettled response during the 24/0900-1200 UTC period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet for the remainder of day one (24 May), with an unsettled response expected later on day two (25 May) due to a slightly enhanced IMF associated with the expected SSBC. Day three (26 May) is expected to elicit an isolated period of active response, late in the day, due to effects from a CIR and subsequent CH HSS.

COR 1242 UTC

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