[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 25 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 25 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B9/Sf flare at 24/2107 UTC from Region 2546 (S07W70, Hhx/alpha). Region 2548 (N13W15, Dso/beta) developed penumbra in both its leader and trailer spots and provided low level B-class flaring. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares all three days (25-27 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate levels on day one (25 May). Normal to moderate levels are expected on days two and three (26-27 May) due to electron redistribution from CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near background conditions. Solar wind speed was steady at approximately 400 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 5 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -2 nT. Phi angle was positive.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at near background levels for the remainder of day one (25 May). A solar sector boundary change (SSBC) is expected late on day one through day two (26 May). Following the SSBC, a weak CIR ahead of an isolated, negative-polarity CH HSS is expected later on day two. The CH HSS is expected to rotate into a geoeffective position by day three (27 May) with an expected increase in solar wind speed.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet with an isolated period of unsettled activity late on day one (25 May) due to a SSBC. Quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions are likely on day two (26 May) due to the anticipated arrival of a CIR in advance of a CH HSS. Quiet to active levels are expected to continue on day three (27 May) as CH HSS effects persist.

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