[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 26 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 26 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B9/Sf flare at 25/2117 UTC from Region 2548 (N13W29, Dao/beta). Region 2548 showed consolidation in its leader and development in its intermediate spots. Region 2546 (S07W82, Hhx/alpha) was stable and absent of significant flare activity. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares for all three days of the forecast period (26-28 May).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (26-28 May) due to electron redistribution from CIR and CH HSS effects.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of background conditions. Solar wind speed began the period near 400 km/s and ended near 330 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 3 and 5 nT while the Bz component was primarily northward with a minor southward deflection of -3 nT early in the period. Phi angle remained in a positive (away from Sun) orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become disturbed on day one (26 May) due to an expected solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) into a negative sector followed by a weak CIR ahead of an isolated negative polarity CH HSS. Day two (27 May) is expected to see increasing solar wind speeds due to connection with the CH HSS. Solar wind parameters are expected to become less enhanced due to the more rarefied space of the CH HSS on day three (28 May), but solar wind speed is likely to remain elevated as connection to the CH HSS continues.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to elicit mostly quiet to unsettled responses, with an isolated active period later on day one (26 May) due to a disturbed solar wind environment. Geomagnetic response is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled, with a few active periods on day two (27 May) in reaction to increasing solar wind speeds and still enhanced IMF. Day three (28 May) is expected to experience decreasing levels of response at quiet to unsettled levels, due to diminishing reaction in the more rarefied space of the CH HSS.

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