[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 27 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 27 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. Region 2548 (N13W43, Dai/beta) produced a C1/Sf flare at 26/1336 UTC. Shortly after this event Region 2546 (S07, L=224), which rotated around the western limb, produced a C1 flare at 26/1351 UTC with an associated Type IV radio sweep. As mentioned in the previous discussion product an Earth-directed component is not anticipated from either event due to the narrow signature and southwestern trajectory of the visible CME. A disappearing solar filament (DSF) was observed lifting off of the visible disk at approximately 27/0100 UTC in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. The majority of the ejecta appeared to get reabsorbed, however, SWPC forecasters await additional LASCO chronograph imagery to complete analysis of this event. There were no additional CMEs observed in satellite imagery during the reporting period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (27-29 May) due to the flare history of Regions 2546 and 2548.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate levels until approximately 27/0000 UTC when flux values decreased to normal levels due to particle redistribution after the arrival of an anticipated weak CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (27-29 May) due to continued effects from the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was nominal until approximately 27/0100 UTC when a SSBC occurred which changed the phi angle from a positive to a negative solar sector orientation. At the same time an enhancement was noted in the interplanetary magnetic field when Bt jumped from 2 to 8 nT and the Bz component dropped to a period low of -7 nT. Wind speed displayed a steady increase starting the period near 330 km/s and ending the period at approximately 450 km/s. This solar wind signature, measured at the ACE spacecraft, is indicative of a weak, negative-polarity CH HSS. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain slightly enhanced under the effects of the above mentioned CH HSS throughout day one (27 May) and into the early part of day two (28 May). On day three (29 May) an additional enhancement is anticipated due to the arrival of another negative-polarity CH HSS located in the northwest quadrant of the solar disk.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period likely on day one (27 May) due to continued CH HSS effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (28 May) due to waning CH HSS influence. The geomagnetic response on day three (29 May) is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled with active periods late in the day due to the anticipated arrival of another negative polarity CH HSS.

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