[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 30 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 30 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached low levels due to an impulsive C1 flare at 30/0737 UTC from newly numbered Region 2550 (N15W25, Bxo/beta). Region 2548 (N14W84, Hsx/alpha) was stable and should be off of the visible disk by the end of the summary period. Region 2549 (S14W03, Axx/alpha) exhibited decay and was inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-flares on days one through three (30 May-01 Jun) as Region 2548 rotates around the west limb.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (30 May-01 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background values.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment remained enhanced due to the influences of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds gradually increased from 420 km/s to speeds near 500 km/s by periods end. Bt decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT while the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deviation of -5 nT. The phi angle was negative throughout the reporting period. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to be further enhanced due to the influence of another negative polarity CH HSS. Conditions are expected to begin to recover on day two (31 May) and return to ambient levels on day three (01 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled with an isolated period (30/00-03 UTC) of active levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on day one (30 May) with an isolated minor storm period likely due to continued CH HSS effects. Conditions are expected to decrease to quiet to active levels on day two (31 May) as CH HSS effects begin to taper off. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on day three (01 Jun).

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