[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 May 31 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 May 31 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest solar event of the period was a C1/Sf flare at 30/1324 UTC from Region 2550 (N15W38, Cro/beta). Region 2550 was the most productive flare producer during the reporting period while undergoing decay in its intermediate spots. Region 2551 (N04W51, Cro/beta) was absent of significant flare activity and saw slight growth and consolidation in its leader spot group. Region 2549 (S13W16, Axx/alpha) decayed to a unipolar spot group. The disappearing solar filament located near N30W35 and mentioned in the previous discussion product did not manifest in chronograph imagery and is not expected to contain an Earth-directed component. There were no geoeffective CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares (below R1-Minor) on all three days of the forecast period (31 May, 01-02 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was normal to high, reaching a peak level of 1088 pfu at 30/1550 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one through three (31 May, 01-02 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of a return to near background conditions. Solar wind speed began the period at approximately 500 km/s and showed a steady decline to period ending values near 440 km/s. Total field (Bt) ranged between 1 and 6 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward deflection of -5 nT. Phi angle was predominately oriented in a negative solar sector. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain under a nominal solar wind regime throughout the forecast period (31 May, 01-02 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions during the 31/0600-0900 UTC synoptic period.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet during the forecast period (31 May, 01-02 Jun).

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