[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 01 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 01 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2551 (N04W65, Dao/beta) produced a few low level B-class flares and showed development in both its leader and trailer spots. Region 2550 (N15W52, Cro/beta) was absent of significant flare activity and showed signs of decay. Region 2549 (S13W31) decayed to plage. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares during the forecast period (01-03 Jun).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels, reaching a maximum flux of 1,905 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to high levels on day one (01 Jun) and decrease to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (02-03 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of near background conditions. Solar wind speed ranged between 450-500 km/s. Total field (Bt) was steady at approximately 5 nT with the exception of the first hour of the period when it was elevated to 8 nT. The Bz component was negative during the first half of the period reaching a low value of -6 nT. Phi angle was predominately positive but oscillated into negative territory several times throughout the period. Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to remain at near background levels on days one and two (01-02 Jun), however, some minor disturbances are possible due to Earths proximity to the heliospheric current sheet. An enhancement is anticipated later on day three (03 Jun) due to influences from an approaching CIR ahead of an isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on days one and two (01-02 Jun). Day three (03 Jun) is expected to be mostly quiet with unsettled conditions expected later in the day due to the anticipated onset of a CH HSS.

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