[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 02 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 02 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest event of the period was a B7 flare observed by the GOES-14 spacecraft at 01/2235 UTC. This event can be associated with an eruptive filament observed lifting off of the solar disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery at approximately 01/2243 UTC. Due to the source location near the northeast limb an Earth-directed component is not anticipated. Region 2551 (N04W78, Cao/beta), the lone numbered sunspot, continued its migration closer to the western limb and was absent of significant flare activity. Region 2550 (N15W72) decayed to plage and is no longer visible in white light imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flare activity during the forecast period (02-04 Jun). Region 2551 is due to rotate around the limb midday on day two (03 Jun). If no new sunspots emerge prior to its departure it is possible that we will witness a spotless disk.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was moderate to high, reaching a maximum flux value of 1,373 pfu at 01/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels on days one and two (02-03 Jun). Day three (04 Jun) should see the arrival of a negative polarity CH HSS feature that should decrease electron flux levels to a normal range. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment was indicative of nominal background conditions. Wind speed started the period near 450 km/s and displayed a trend of steady decline to end the period near 360 km/s. Total field (Bt) achieved a high value of 4 nT while the Bz component dropped to a low value of -3 nT. Phi angle was predominately negative. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels until day three (04 Jun) when the previously mentioned CH HSS begins to impact Earth.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels on day one (02 Jun), quiet to unsettled levels on day two (03 Jun) and unsettled to major storm levels (G2-Moderate) on day three (04 Jun) in response to CH HSS influence.

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