[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 03 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 03 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no reportable flare activity was observed this period. Region 2550 (N15W78, Bxo/beta) was the only spotted region on the visible disk and underwent decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (03-05 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,310 pfu observed at 02/1555 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on day one and early on day two (03-04 May). Electron flux is expected to decrease to normal levels by midday day two through day three (05 May) due to elevated geomagnetic field activity.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period (03-05 May).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a nominal solar wind environment this period. Solar wind speeds decreased from initial values near 375 km/s to end-of-period values around 285 km/s and Bz was between +/-2 nT. The phi angle was steady in a negative solar sector orientation throughout the period. Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to become enhanced beginning midday on day two through day three (04-05 May) due to the onset of a strong co-rotating interaction region (CIR) followed by the influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speeds in excess of 700 km/s are expected as this feature moves into a geoeffective position.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (03 May). Field activity is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on days two and three (04-05 May) due to the onset of a CIR followed by the influence of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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