[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 05 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 05 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low and no active regions with sunspots were observed this period. No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period (05-07 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period with a peak flux of 1,520 pfu observed at 04/1720 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on day one (05 Jun) and return to high levels on days two and three (06-07 Jun). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of the onset of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds were steady between 300-320 km/s until near 05/0900 UTC, then increased to approximately 400 km/s. Total field ranged from 3 nT to 6 nT for most of the period, before increasing to 12 nT to 16 nT after 05/0700 UTC. The Bz component was variable through the period and had a sustained southward component near -5 nT from from approximately 05/0700-0830 UTC. The phi angle meandered from negative to neutral during the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to be enhanced on day one (05 Jun) through early on day two (06 Jun) due the influence of a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind recurrence and STEREO-A PLASTIC data suggest wind speeds in the 600-700 km/s range are likely with this feature. Solar wind parameters are expected to begin a slow return to near-background levels midday on day two through day three (06-07 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated active period due to the onset of the CIR ahead of the CH HSS.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels on day one (05 Jun) due to the influence of a negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet to active conditions are expected on day two (06 Jun) and quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day three (07 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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