[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Jun 06 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 06 0156 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 May - 05 June 2016

Solar activity ranged from very low to low levels. Low activity was observed on 30 May with a pair of C1/Sf flares observed from Region 2550 (N15, L=114, class/area Cro/020 on 31 May). Very low levels were observed on 31 May and 01-05 Jun. Of note, the first spotless day since 17 Jul 2014 was observed on 03 Jun.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels on 30 May - 04 Jun with moderate levels observed on 05 Jun.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels. Quiet to active levels were observed on 30-31 May due to negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influence. During this time frame, wind speeds peaked at about 575 km/s early on 30 May while the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field reached a maximum southward of extent of -6 nT late on 31 May. Quiet conditions were observed on 01 Jun through midday on 05 Jun. Active to G1 storm levels were observed through the remainder of 05 Jun due to effects from another negative polarity CH HSS. Late on 05 Jun, wind speeds approached 650 km/s, total field reached 19 nT while the Bz component briefly hit a maximum southward extent of -15 nT.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 June - 02 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with C-class activity possible throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be reach high levels on 07-09, 12-16, 26-30 Jun and 01 Jul. Normal to moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) levels on 06 Jun and 02 Jul with unsettled to active levels expected on 12-15, 17-18, 23-24 and 26-27 Jun, all due to the influence of multiple recurrent CH HSSs. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook period under a nominal solar wind regime.

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