[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 09 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 09 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2552 (N15W41, Dai/beta-delta) continued to grow in penumbral area, developing a weak delta configuration later in the period. An increase in x-ray activity was noted alongside the growth but only low-level B-class flares have been produced thus far.

A partial-halo CME was first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 09/0148 UTC and appears to be associated with activity on the far-side of the Sun.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance for C-class flares all three days (09-11 Jun); primarily due to the increased flare probability of Region 2552. Additionally, an active region visible in STEREO-A/EUV imagery will be a likely contributor as it rotates into view by day three (11 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and reached a max flux of 1,150 pfu at 08/1340 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate levels on days one and two (09-10 Jun) and normal to moderate levels on day three (11 Jun) as an anticipated CIR interacts with Earths magnetosphere. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected ambient conditions. The Total magnetic field was between 2-6 nT. Solar wind speeds steadily decline from 450 km/s to near 370 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle varied between the positive and negative sectors.

Forecast: The solar wind environment is expected to continue at background levels on day one (09 Jun). Slight enhancement is possible on day two (10 Jun) associated with a more pronounced SSBC. An additional enhancement from a weak CIR ahead of a positive polarity CH HSS is expected on day three (11 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at primarily quiet levels on day one (09 Jun). Isolated periods of unsettled conditions are likely on day two (10 Jun) due to an anticipated SSBC. Day three (11 Jun) will likely observed additional periods of unsettled conditions as CIR effects are expected to begin influencing Earth.

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