[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 10 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 10 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2552 (N14W62, Dai/beta-delta) produced the strongest flare of the period, a C1/Sf at 09/1514 UTC. The region reversed its growing trend and underwent minor dissipation in penumbral area. Newly numbered Region (S06E85, Hsx/alpha) recently rotated around the East limb with no significant flare activity noted during the period.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to be very low over the next three days (10-12 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,570 pfu at 09/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate to high levels on day one (10 Jun) before decreasing to normal to moderate levels on days two and three (11-12 Jun) due to electron redistribution associated with CIR and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values all three days.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflect ambient conditions. Total magnetic field strength was below 5 nT through most of the day. A weak enhancement to 6 nT was observed at the very end of the period. Wind speeds were roughly 340-380 km/s. Phi angle predominantly oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are likely to become enhanced late on day one (10 Jun) from an anticipated SSBC. A further enhancement is expected on days two and three (11-12 Jun) as an anticipated CIR ahead of a CH HSS becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one (10 Jun). Day two and three (11-12 Jun) are likely to see conditions reach unsettled to active as a CIR followed by a CH HSS interacts with Earths magnetosphere.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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