[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 15 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 15 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2554 (N08W80, Hhx/alpha) was in decay with all of the trailer spots dissipating over the past 24 hours. Region 2553 (S06E12, Hsx/alpha) remained quiet and stable. Several regions of emerging flux have appeared but no spots persisted long enough to be assigned active region numbers.

Analysis and modeling of a CME signature, first observed in LASCO C2 imagery at 14/1326 UTC, suggested the periphery of the CME narrowly missing Earth. No other CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class flares all three days (15-17 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (15-16 Jun) and increase to moderate to high levels on day three (17 Jun) due to CH HSS effects.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of a CIR followed by a positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) increased from around near 7 nT at the beginning of the period to a peak of 15 nT at 14/1834 UTC. Bt then gradually declined to between 5-10 nT by the periods end. The Bz component of the field observed a maximum southward deflection of -14 nT at 14/1833 UTC. Solar wind speeds increased from around 450 km/s at the beginning of the period to a peak of just over 700 km/s around 15/0410 UTC before gradually decreasing towards 600 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was variable before rotating into a predominantly positive sector after around 14/2100 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced over day one through three (15-17 Jun) as the CH HSS effects persist.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field reached G2 (Moderate) in response to a prolonged period of southward Bz during the 14/1800-2100 UTC synoptic period. G1 (Minor) were conditions were also observed during the 15/0000-0300 UTC synoptic period as CH HSS effects persisted.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain disturbed under the influence of the CH HSS. With the transition of the CIR into the CH HSS, primarily unsettled to active conditions are expected on days one and two (15-16 Jun). By day three (17 Jun), quiet to unsettled conditions are likely as the CH HSS begins to subside.

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