[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. Region 2553 (S07W02, Cho/beta) developed a small trailer spot late in the period. Newly numbered Region 2555 (S09W50, Dro/beta) developed rudimentary penumbra around both leader and trailer spots.

A DSF was reported from SOON sites, centered at N08E50, beginning around 15/2004 UTC. The material was likely reabsorbed as no subsequent CME signatures were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery. A northern oriented CME, first observed in LASCO/C2 imagery at 16/0224 UTC, was likely associated with an eruption in the corona observed in STEREO A/195 imagery, suggesting a far-side event. An additional CME was observed in LASCO/C2 imagery beginning at 16/0748 UTC. No associated activity was apparent on the Earth-facing side of the Sun suggesting that it was not an Earth-directed event.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (16-18 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (16 Jun), and continue at normal to moderate levels, with a chance for high levels on days two and three (17-18 Jun) due to CH HSS effects.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, was indicative of influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 5-10 nT. The Bz component was primarily oriented northward. Wind speeds gradually declined from around 600 km/s at the beginning of the period to around 525 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from the CH HSS on days one and two (16-17 Jun). A trend towards ambient conditions is expected on day three (18 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled despite elevated solar wind speeds due to a primarily northward oriented Bz component of the IMF.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to continue at primarily quiet to active conditions on days one and two(16-17 Jun) as the CH HSS persists. An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming is likely following sustained periods of southward Bz on day one (16 Jun). As CH HSS influences continues to subside, day three (18 Jun) will likely observed quiet to unsettled conditions.

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