[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only background activity observed. Region 2553 (S07W16, Hhx/alpha) remained stable and inactive. Region 2555 (S09W64, Cao/beta) indicated some weak intermediate spot growth and produced a few B-class flares. New Region 2556 (N05E78, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the NE limb and produced a B-class flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (17-19 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a maximum flux of 227 pfu observed at 16/1810 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (17 Jun) with a chance for high levels on days two and three (18-19 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-7 nT while the Bz component varied between +5 nT to -6 nT. Wind speeds were generally variable between 450 km/s to 550 km/s through about 17/0540 UTC. Thereafter, and through periods end, wind speeds increased to near 600 km/s. Phi angle was in a predominantly positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from the CH HSS on day one (17 Jun). A trend towards ambient conditions is expected on days two and three (18-19 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (17 Jun) under the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (18 Jun) as CH HSS influence wanes. By day three (19 Jun), quiet conditions are expected under a nominal solar wind environment.

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