[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 18 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low with only background flare activity observed. The three spotted regions on the visible disk were stable and relatively inactive. Flux emergence was observed near N11E21. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (18-20 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 443 pfu observed at 17/1800 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one (18 Jun) with a chance for high levels on days two and three (19-20 Jun).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, were indicative of continued influence from a positive polarity CH HSS. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 3-6 nT while the Bz component varied between +6 nT to -4 nT. Wind speeds averaged about 600 km/s while phi angle remained in a predominantly positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced from the CH HSS on day one (18 Jun). A trend towards ambient conditions is expected on days two and three (19-20 Jun) as CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (18 Jun) under the continued influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. On days two and three (19-20 Jun), quiet conditions are expected under a nominal solar wind environment.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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