[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels with only background flare activity observed. Regions 2553 (S07W43, Hhx/alpha) and 2556 (N06E49, Hsx/alpha) were unchanged and stable throughout the period. Region 2557 (N09W01, Bxo/beta) underwent minor decay. New Region 2558 (N13W31, Cro/beta) rapidly emerged on the disk early in the period but remained quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low, with a slight chance for C-class activity, over the next three days (19-21 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels with a peak flux of 813 pfu observed at 18/1445 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over the next three days (19-21 Jun) and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the continued, but waning, influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds slowly decreased from initial values of about 600 km/s to end-of-period values near 535 km/s. Bt values were steady between 3-5 nT while the Bz component varied between +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind speeds are expected to slowly return to near-background levels early on day one (19 Jun) and remain at background levels through the remainder of the forecast period (20-21 Jun) with the return of a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (19-21 Jun) under a nominal solar wind regime.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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