[Propagation+Space Weather] Weekly Propagation Summary - 2016 Jun 20 16:10 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is this week's space weather and geophysical report, issued 2016 Jun 20 0550 UTC.

Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 June 2016

Solar activity was at very low levels the majority of the period with low levels observed on 13 and 19 June due to a C3 flare at 13/0552 UTC from Region 2552 (N15, L=359, class/area Dao/150 on 11 June) and a C1 flare at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558 (N13, L=215, class/area Cso/030 on 19 June). The majority of the B-class activity was caused by Region 2555 (S09, L=274, class/area Cao/080 on 17 June). No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels throughout the period and briefly reached high levels on 19 June with a maximum flux of 1,030 pfu at 19/1640 UTC.

The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels. Solar wind conditions began the period under a waning positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). Solar wind speeds decreased from approximately 620 km/s to around 420 km/s by midday on 14 June. Total field decreased from 8 nT to 4 nT. By late on 14 June, total field increased to 15 nT with the Bz component mostly southward near -14 nT while solar wind increased to a maximum of 772 km/s at 15/0410 UTC, indicative of a co-rotating interaction region followed by another positive polarity CH HSS. The geomagnetic field responded with quiet to active levels on 13 June, quiet to G2-Moderate storm levels on 14 June and quiet to G1-Minor storm levels on 15 June. By early on 16 June, total field decreased to around 6 nT with solar wind speeds in the 500-600 km/s range. These conditions continued until 19 June when solar wind speeds decreased to nominal levels. Quiet conditions were observed on 16 and 19 June with quiet to unsettled levels on 17-18 June.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 June - 16 July 2016

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels for the forecast period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels with high levels likely on 20-22 June, 26 June-01 July, 04-07 July and again on 16 July due to CH HSS activity.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels from 23-27 June, 02-03 July, 07-12 July and 14-15 July. G1-Minor storm levels are likely on 02-03 July and 11 July due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

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