[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 20 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 20 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2558 (N13W44, Cao/beta) produced the largest event over the past 24 hours; a B9 x-ray event observed at 20/0300 UTC. The region exhibited leader spots decay during the period. Regions 2553 (S06W57, Hhx/alpha) and 2556 (N06E35, Hax/alpha) were both quiet and stable while Region 2557 (N09, L=186) decayed to plage.

Numerous CMEs were observed off the NW through SW limbs over the past 24 hours. The first CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery off the NW limb, first visible at 19/1325 UTC, and was associated with a C1 x-ray event observed at 19/1158 UTC from Region 2558. Analysis of this slow-moving CME, and subsequent WSA-Enlil model output, suggested there was no Earth-directed component. Additional CMEs off the W through SW limbs were observed in coronagraph imagery between 20/0200-0800 UTC, all related to eruptive prominence activity. Due to the location of this activity at or behind the limb, no Earth-directed component is expected. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (20-22 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux briefly reached high levels with a peak flux of 1,030 pfu observed at 19/1640 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach high levels over the next three days (20-22 Jun) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds steadily decreased from initial values near 535 km/s to end-of-period values approaching 460 km/s. Total field strength values ranged between 2-4 nT while the Bz component was mostly northward throughout the period with occasional southward excursions to -2 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels throughout the forecast period (20-22 Jun) under a nominal solar wind regime.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a near background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to persist at quiet levels over the next three days (20-22 Jun).

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