[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 21 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at very levels. A long-duration B3 flare was observed near Region 2553 (S06W71, Hhx/alpha) at 21/0534 UTC. An associated CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery near the west limb. Analysis of this CME indicated it did not have an Earth-directed component. Both Regions 2553 and Region 2556 (N06E21, Hax/alpha) remained predominantly stable throughout the period.

A well defined CME was first observed in LASCO C2 at ~20/1600 UTC with a NNE trajectory from the Sun center. This event was also visible in STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery, as well as STEREO A EUVI 195, as a wave depicting a clear source location on the far side of the Sun - taking the transient away from Earth.

Coronal dimming was observed in SDO/AIA 193 imagery at approximately 20/1941 UTC, centered near N10E10. A faint CME off the ENE limb could be seen in SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery at approximately 20/2115 UTC, likely associated with the coronal dimming near center disk. Analysis of WSA/Enlil data indicated the plasma cloud will likely just miss Earth and should have little to no impact.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares over the next three days (21-23 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 942 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to reach near or slightly exceed high levels over the next three days (21-23 Jun) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected an ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds averaged between 400 km/s - 450 km/s, total field strength values ranged between 2-4 nT, while the Bz component was mostly northward throughout the period with occasional southward excursions to -4 nT. The phi angle was steady in a positive solar sector orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels for days one and two of the forecast period (21-22 Jun) under a nominal solar wind regime. Day three is forecast to see a solar sector boundary crossing to negative polarity, before the initial onset of CH HSS effects. Additional enhancements could be possible if either of the CMEs mentioned earlier are determined to have an Earth-directed component.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet throughout the period under a near background solar wind environment.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet levels over the next two days (21-22 Jun). An increase to unsettled conditions on day three is possible, with the onset of CH HSS activity from a recurrent negative polarity coronal hole.

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