[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 22 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 22 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at very low levels. No notable flares were observed during the period. Both Region 2553 (S06W83, Hsx/alpha) and Region 2556 (N05E09, Hsx/alpha) exhibited slight decay and were inactive throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares over the next three days (22-24 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1030 pfu. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at moderate to high levels over the next three days (22-24 Jun) while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to reflect an ambient solar wind regime. Solar wind speeds remained steady near 400 km/s, total field strength values ranged between 1-6 nT, while the Bz component fluctuated between +/-4 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive orientation until approximately 22/0500 UTC, when it oscillated into a negative sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at near-background levels for day one (22 Jun) under a quiet background solar wind regime. Day two (23 Jun) is forecast to see a solar sector boundary crossing to negative polarity, before the initial onset of CH HSS effects, which should persist through day two and into day three (24 Jun) with solar wind velocities near 600 km/s expected.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet for day one (22 Jun). An increase to unsettled conditions is expected on days two and three (23-24 Jun) as a negative polarity coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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