[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jun 23 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jun 23 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity continued at very low levels due to a nearly spotless visible disk. No discernible flare activity was observed during the period. Region 2556 (N05W04, Hsx/alpha) was the sole remaining spotted region, but continued to decay throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low over the next three days (23-25 Jun).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 1181 pfu at 22/1620 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to be at background levels for much of day one (23 Jun) due to the redistribution of particles following the CIR arrival earlier in the period. Moderate to high levels should return for days two and three (24-25 Jun) following the increase in solar wind speeds associated with the CH HSS. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters reflected a brief enhancement associated with the arrival of a CIR and subsequent negative polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds began the period near 350 km/s. A gradual increase in speeds began after 22/1800 UTC, eventually reaching a max speed of 469 km/s. Shortly after 23/0300 UTC, winds quickly decreased to average near 360 km/s for the remainder of the period. Total field strength values increased to a peak of 13 nT before returning to average around 7 nT. The Bz component fluctuated between +9 nT and -6 nT until approximately 23/0400 UTC when it stabilized near 6 nT through the end of the period. The phi angle remained in a predominantly negative orientation.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to reflect CH HSS influence, which should persist through days two and three (24-25 Jun). Solar wind speeds are expected to see maximum values near 600 km/s on day two (24 Jun).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated period of minor storm (G1) conditions between 22/1800-2100 UTC.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with isolated periods of active conditions, on days one and two (23-24 Jun) as negative polarity coronal hole influence continues. Day three should see decreased activity to mostly unsettled levels, as CH conditions begin to wane.

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