[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 07 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 07 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low due to a C5 flare at 07/0756 UTC from newly numbered Region 2561 (S16W38, Cro/beta). Region 2561 produced multiple B-class flares in addition to the C5 flare shortly after appearing on the disk. Region 2560 (S08E35, Axx/alpha) lost its spot and returned to a plage state. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a slight chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (07-09 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (07-08 Jul) with high levels likely on day three (09 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of positive-polarity coronal hole onset. Background wind speeds were persistent until approximately 07/0100 UTC when a gradual increase began that saw end of period values near 425 km/s. Total field values ranged between 1 and 13 nT with a noticeable enhancement in conjunction with the wind speed increase. The Bz component oscillated between negative and positive with a maximum southward deviation of -11 nT. A solar sector boundary crossing from a negative to a positive sector occurred at approximately 06/1730 UTC prior to the arrival of the CH.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (07-08 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. CH influence should begin to wane by day three (09 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled due to the onset of the positive polarity CH mentioned above.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is likely to reach isolated periods of G1 (Minor) levels on days one and two (07-08 Jul) due to CH HSS influence. Day three (09 Jul) will likely see mostly quiet to unsettled conditions as the CH HSS effects wane.

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