[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 08 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 08 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was low. The largest event of the period was a C2 flare at 08/0056 UTC from an unnumbered region around the eastern limb. Region 2561 (S16W52, Axx/alpha) lost its bipolar classification after displaying signs of decay throughout the reporting period. Region 2562 (S06E65, Cao/beta) produced a B6 flare at 08/0624 UTC and developed new spots in its trailing section. New Region 2563 (N19E63, Bxo/beta) was absent of significant flaring. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (08-10 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels throughout the period.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (08-09 Jul) with high levels likely on day three (10 Jul) due to CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested continued effects from the positive polarity CH HSS. Total magnetic field strength was elevated and reached a peak of 14 nT. Bz was variable but had a few pronounced and prolonged periods of southward orientation. Solar wind speed started the period near 400 km/s and steadily rose to period ending values approaching 600 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly oriented in a positive sector.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced on days one and two (08-09 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. By day three (10 Jul), effects from the CH HSS are expected to wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to CH HSS influence.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels with isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions on day one (08 Jul) as the CH HSS continues to influence Earth. Quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods are likely on day two (09 Jul) as the CH HSS effects persist. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels are expected on day three (10 Jul) as influence wanes.

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