[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 11 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 11 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity decreased to very low levels with only background activity observed. Leader spot development was observed in Region 2563 (N19E25, Cro/beta). Regions 2562 (S06E26, Cao/beta) and 2564 (N09E44, Dai/beta-gamma) indicated little change. New Region 2565 (N05E76, Hsx/alpha) rotated onto the disk during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class flares (R1 to R2, Minor-Moderate) throughout the forecast period (11-13 Jul).

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,159 pfu observed at 10/1715 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels all three days of the forecast period (11-13 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (11-13 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters continued to be enhanced under a polar connected, positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speed began the period near 575 km/s but steadily decreased to end-of-period speeds approaching 475 km/s. Total field was relatively steady between 4-5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue to diminish through late on day one (11 Jul). By late on 11 July, an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective resulting in an additional enhancement to solar wind parameters. Solar wind speeds in the 550 km/s to 650 km/s range are likely with this new enhancement. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced, but slowly diminish over the next two days (12-13 Jul).

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels under waning CH HSS conditions.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to increase to active to G1-Minor storm levels by late on day one (11 Jul) as an equatorial, positive polarity CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day two (12 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by day three (13 Jul) as CH HSS effects diminish.

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