[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 12 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

This e-mail posting is from the Radio Propagation Reflector that you're 
currently subscribed to.  Refer to the end of this e-mail for directions on how 
to change your subscription options, or to unsubscribe.
_______________________-start-_________________

Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 12 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. The largest solar event of the period was a B9/Sf flare from Region 2564 (N09E31, Cao/beta). Region 2564 showed signs of decay and penumbral loss in its trailer. Region 2563 (N19E12, Cro/beta) developed a rudimentary penumbra in its leader spot group. The remaining two numbered sunspot regions were inactive and stable. There were an abundance of fixed frequency 245 radio bursts reported during the period. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (12-14 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 4,450 pfu observed at 11/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels on days one and two (12-13 Jul) and moderate to high levels on day three (14 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (12-14 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected the arrival of a positive polarity, trans-equatorial CH HSS. Wind speed began the period near 500 km/s but underwent a steady increase to end the period at approximately 600 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) was enhanced, reaching a maximum value of 9 nT. The Bz component was predominately negative reaching a low of -8 nT late in the period. The phi angle was mostly positive. Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions should prevail for the duration of the forecast period (12-14 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm (G1-Minor) levels due to CH HSS effects.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor) for the remainder of day one (12 Jul). Days one and two (13-14 Jul) should see unsettled to active conditions due to positive polarity CH HSS influence.

Don't forget to visit our live space weather and radio propagation web site, at: http://SunSpotWatch.com/

Live Aurora mapping is at http://aurora.sunspotwatch.com/

If you are on Twitter, please follow these two users: + https://Twitter.com/NW7US + https://Twitter.com/hfradiospacewx

Get the space weather and radio propagation self-study course, today. Visit http://nw7us.us/swc for the latest sale and for more information!

Check out the stunning view of our Sun in action, as seen during the last five years with the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXN-MdoGM9g

We're on Facebook: http://NW7US.us/swhfr

Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

_______________________________________________
Propagation mailing list
Propagation@contesting.com

To change your subscription settings, or to unsubscribe, visit:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/propagation