[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 13 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 13 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. There was no significant flare activity as the existing numbered sunspots were inactive and stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed in available satellite imagery during the period. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (13-15 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (13-15 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (13-15 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: The solar wind environment reflected continued positive polarity, CH HSS influences. Wind speeds were elevated and gradually decreased during the period from a high of 681 km/s at 12/1959 UTC to period ending values near 540 km/s. Total field was between 4 and 8 nT. The Bz component was variable and reached a maximum southward deviation of -5 nT. The phi angle was positive.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period (13-15 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on days one and two (13-14 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on day three (15 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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Live data: SunSpotWatch.com

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