[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 14 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 14 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was very low. A slow rising B-level enhancement was observed from Region 2565 (N04E37, Hax/alpha) at 13/2102 UTC. SWPC forecasters have determined that the CME associated with this event does not contain an Earth-directed component. LASCO and STEREO imagery clearly show the ejecta moving perpendicular to the Sun-Earth line. The remaining numbered sunspot groups were inactive and stable. There were no Earth-directed CMEs noted. Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class flares throughout the forecast period (14-16 Jul).

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (14-16 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (14-16 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Wind speeds were steady, starting and ending the period at approximately 550 km/s. Total field strength (Bt) was steady near 5 nT but became slightly enhanced late in the period in conjunction with periods of sustained southward Bz orientation. Phi angle was oriented in the positive sector.

Forecast: Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to continue through days one and two (14-15 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. Day three will likely see wind speeds trend towards ambient levels as the CH HSS effects wane.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet to active due to elevated wind speeds and periods of sustained negative Bz.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (14 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail on days two and three (15-16 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes.

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