[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 16 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 16 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to multiple C-class flares, all emanating from developing Region 2567 (N04E21, Dac/beta-gamma-delta). The largest event of the period was a C6/Sn observed at 16/0704 UTC. Region 2567 continued to grow in areal extent, particularly in its large leader spot and exhibited consolidation and penumbra growth within its intermediate and trailer spots. A weak delta magnetic configuration persisted within its intermediate spots.

The largest spot group on the disk, Region 2565 (N04E12, Dho/beta), indicated weak penumbral trailer spot growth, but remained quiet. Region 2568 (S16E30, Bxo/beta) was quiet and stable. Region 2566 (N09E07) decayed to plage. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low levels through the period (16-18 Jul) with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-Minor) due to flare potential from developing Region 2567 as well as increased background X-ray flux levels.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 2,438 pfu observed at 15/1725 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (16-18 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (16-18 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from about 650 km/s to near 575 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1-6 nT while the Bz component was variable between +3/-4 nT. The phi angle remained in a predominately positive orientation throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced on day one (16 Jul) before trending towards ambient conditions over days two and three (17-18 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to elevated wind speeds and periods of sustained negative Bz associated with CH HSS activity.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (16 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions are expected on days two and three (17-18 Jul) as an ambient solar wind regime takes hold.

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