[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 17 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 17 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels due to weak C-class flare activity produced by Region 2567 (N05E08, Dhc/beta-gamma) to include a long duration C1 event observed at 17/0642 UTC. The region showed separation in its trailer spots and lost its magnetic delta, but indicated overall area growth. Region 2565 (N05W02, Cko/beta) exhibited penumbra decay in its trailer spots while Region 2568 (S13E16, Axx/alpha) showed signs of decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low levels through the period (17-19 Jul) with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to flare potential from Region 2567 as well as elevated background X-ray flux levels.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels with a peak flux of 4,313 pfu observed at 16/1535 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (17-19 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (17-19 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected the waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from about 575 km/s to near 450 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 1-5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +2/-3 nT. The phi angle remained in a positive orientation until an SSBC to a negative sector was observed at 16/1800 UTC. Phi angle rotated back to a positive sector at about 17/0130 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards ambient conditions over days one and two (17-18 Jul) as CH HSS influence wanes. A slight enhancement is possible late on day three (19 Jul) as a negative polarity high speed stream approaches.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels due to elevated wind speeds as CH HSS effects subside.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet on days one and two (17-18 Jul) as an ambient solar wind regime takes hold. Quiet to unsettled conditions are possible late on day three as a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS approaches.

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