[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 18 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 18 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity remained at low levels due to C-class flare activity produced by Region 2565 (N05W16, Cko/beta). The largest flare of the period was a C6 event observed at 17/2335 UTC. This region showed little change over the past 24 hours.

Region 2567 (N06W06, Dhi/beta) showed separation in its trailer spots and indicated magnetic simplification from a beta-gamma to a simple bi-pole spot group. Region 2568 (S13E02) decayed to plage. New Region 2569 (N17E34, Dao/beta) emerged on the disk early in the period.

Analysis from the faint, asymmetric halo CME from 17 July is ongoing. No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to reach low levels through the period (18-20 Jul) with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due to flare potential from both Regions 2565 and 2567 as well as elevated background X-ray flux levels.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 5,512 pfu observed at 17/1630 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on days one through three (18-20 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (18-20 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a slow return to ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased through the period from about 460 km/s to near 400 km/s. Total magnetic field strength ranged between 2-5 nT while the Bz component was variable between +3/-4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive sector throughout the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at ambient levels on day one and the majority of day two (18-19 Jul). Enhanced conditions are expected late on day two and into day three (20 Jul) as a negative polarity high speed stream becomes geoeffective.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet levels through late day two (19 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected late on day two with active periods likely on day three (20 Jul) due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS.

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