[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 19 1230 UTC

[nw7us@sunspotwatch.com]

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 19 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2565 (N05W29, Cko/beta) underwent some dissipation, but did produce an impulsive C1/Sf flare at 19/0022 UTC. Region 2567 (N05W19, Dhi/beta) underwent minor decay, before regrowth occurred later in the period. The region remained in a simple bipolar configuration, but showed signs of possible mixed polarity development within the intermediate spots late in the period. The region produced a slow-rise C2 flare or enhancement that began at approximately 19/1001 UTC; which was still in progress at the end of the period. Region 2566 (N11W31, Axx/alpha) nearly decayed completely. Region 2569 (N15E21, Cso/beta) underwent decay and was primarily inactive.

Analysis from the faint, asymmetric halo CME from 17 July suggested a possible impact from the slow moving plasma cloud sometime early on 21 Jul. Speeds analyzed indicated a relatively slow moving CME, approximately 450 km/s, with anticipated timing to coincide with the arrival of the coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). No new Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels over the next three days (19-21 Jul), with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) due primarily to the flare potential from Regions 2565 and 2567.

Energetic Particle

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 6,229 pfu observed at 18/1605 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to high levels on day one and early on day two (19-20 Jul) in response to elevated wind speeds from CH HSS activity. Electron flux is expected to decrease to normal to moderate levels on day three (21 Jul) due to a redistribution of particles in response to the arrival of the anticipated CME on day three (21 Jul) and CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (19-21 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reflected a return to ambient conditions. Solar wind speeds decreased from around 400 km/s early in the period down to about 330 km/s near the end of the period. Total IMF strength ranged from 1 to 4 nT, while the Bz component underwent only weak deviations. The phi angle continued in a positive sector through most of the period, before deflecting into a negative sector near the end of the period.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at ambient levels on day one (19 Jul). Enhanced conditions are expected early on day two (20 Jul) and into day three (21 Jul) due to a negative polarity CH HSS moving into a geoeffective position; as well as the anticipated arrival of the 17 Jul CME.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the remainder of day one (19 Jul). Quiet to unsettled conditions are then expected, with an active period likely early on day two (20 Jul), due to effects from a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS. Active levels, with a slight chance for G1 (minor) storm conditions are possible early on day three (21 Jul) with the arrival of the anticipated CME, combined with continued CH HSS effects, before beginning to taper off near the end of the period.

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