[Propagation+Space Weather] Today's Space Weather Forecast Discussion on 2016 Jul 21 1230 UTC

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Here is the current forecast discussion on space weather and geophysical activity, issued 2016 Jul 21 1230 UTC.

Solar Activity

24 hr Summary: Solar activity reached moderate levels due to a pair of M1 flares and multiple C-class flares from Region 2567 (N05W47, Dki/beta). The region decreased in area, but retained a moderate magnetic gradient and some minor shear. The first M1 flare occurred at 21/0046 UTC and the second at 21/0149 UTC. The region also produced a succession of several C-class flares of note beginning with a C4/Sf at 20/2217 UTC and the last a C3 flare at 20/2351 UTC. Additionally, the regions flaring during this time-frame were associated with a Type II radio sweep beginning at 20/2307 UTC (estimated velocity of 1168 km/s), a Type IV radio sweep beginning at 20/2217 UTC, and a 10cm radio burst (110 sfu) at 20/2207 UTC. The activity was also associated with a pair of CMEs from the SW limb. The first was clearly seen at 20/2324 UTC and the second at 21/0048 UTC in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery. Both CMEs have been analyzed and submitted for a WSA-Enlil model run; the results should be available as of the next report.

Region 2565 (N03W56, Cko/beta) lost some penumbral area and was inactive. Region 2569 (N17W09, Axx/alpha) decayed further and remained inactive.

Additional CMEs were noted from the NE limb; the first clearly seen at 20/1848 UTC and the second at 21/0212 UTC. Both appeared to have originated from the far-side of the Sun.

Forecast: Solar activity is likely to continue at low levels, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) all three days (21-23 Jul) due primarily to the continued high flare probability of Region 2567.

Energetic Particles

24 hr Summary: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux continued at normal levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

Forecast: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal to moderate levels on day one and most of day two (21-22 Jul) due to electron redistribution from CH HSS influence, with a likely increase to moderate to high levels late on day two into day three (22-23 Jul). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels for the forecast period (21-23 Jul).

Solar Wind

24 hr Summary: Solar wind parameters were indicative of continued CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength remained enhanced at primarily between 9 to 12 nT; while the Bz component was directed northward. Solar wind speed began the period at about 575 km/s, before steadily decreasing to around 450 km/s by the periods end. The phi angle was primarily in a negative sector (towards the Sun), except for a brief oscillation into the positive (away from Sun) between about 20/1345-1438 UTC.

Forecast: Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced for the remainder of day one (21 Jul) on into day two (22 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. By the end of day two and into day three (22-23 Jul) conditions are expected to return to near-background levels as the CH HSS influence wanes.

Geospace

24 hr Summary: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels, with a likely period of active response, near the end of day one (21 Jul) due to continued CH HSS influence. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with an early isolated active period, are expected on day two (22 Jul) as CH HSS effects persist. Day three (23 Jul) is anticipated to be mostly quiet, with a few isolated unsettled periods, in response to continued, but waning CH HSS effects.

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